MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 4

MNI BRIEF: China Has Four Months To Negotiate EU EV Agreement

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW: ISM Choppiness Not A Clear Signal For Worry

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY98 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1305 Thurs; -0.79% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

DMP survey increases probability of August cut

MNI: UK JUNE CONSTRUCTION PMI 52.2 (FCST: 54.0); MAY 54.7

MNI: EUROZONE JUNE CONSTRUCTION PMI 41.8; MAY 42.9

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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EURHUF Remains Near Daily Lows Following Virag’s Presser

HUF
  • EURHUF has returned back to the post-NBH lows following Virag’s presser. The cross is trading at around 386.70 at typing, though still some way off initial support at 382.27 – the 50-day EMA. PLNHUF, meanwhile, has returned back below the Dec 20 high of 89.06. Yesterday, that cross reached its highest since December 2022.
  • Overall, the Forint is a standout performer among EM peers on Tuesday, with the NBH surprise providing insulation from the most recent spike higher in US yields following the strong US JOLTS data and Red Sea tensions which are providing a moderate headwind to risk-sensitive currencies.
  • The Deputy Governor offered little in the way of explicit forward guidance, saying only that a 100bp move will be considered in February (though it has also been considered in previous meetings). Virag did note, however, that the 75bp decision had a “large majority”. Deteriorating risk sentiment was the primary reason behind the smaller than expected cut, he added.
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