MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Strong AUD Rally Through Bull Trigger

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Strong AUD Rally Puts Pair Through Bull Trigger

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Yesterday's all-time high print confirms a recent bull flag formation on the daily scale. Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade inside a range. The trend condition is bullish and the recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement. 
• GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday, extending the recovery from Tuesday's low. The bounce undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights a potential short-term reversal. Resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, has also been cleared. The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. The breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the bullish follow through since, reinforces current conditions. A strong rally in AUDUSD yesterday resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This paves the way for a climb towards 0.6751.
• Gold traded higher yesterday but, price remains inside a range, for now. A bear threat is present and the sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2320.8. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded higher Tuesday, before giving back some gains. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme.
• Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The sell-off Monday undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Monday, confirming an extension of the latest bear cycle. Despite yesterday’s gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off signals scope for a continuation near-term towards 96.25. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance         

• RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
• RES 2: 1.0820 61.8% retracement of the Jun 4 - 26 downleg  
• RES 1: 1.0817 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 1.0785 @ 05:49 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 1.0710/0666 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2  

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday resulting in a break of Monday’s 1.0776 high. Note that price is also through an important resistance at 1.0771, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA undermines the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a recovery towards 1.0820, 61.8% of the Jun 4 - 26 downleg. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.0666, Jun 26 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Strong Recovery      

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2777/2860 High Jul 3 / High Jun 12 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.2742 @ 06:13 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 1.2672/13 50-day EMA / Low June 27
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15 
• SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support     

GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday, extending the recovery from Tuesday's low. The bounce undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights a potential short-term reversal. Resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, has also been cleared. A break of this hurdle is a bullish development and opens 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and the key resistance. Key support has been defined at 1.2613, the Jun 27 low. A break would resume the recent bear leg.    

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Is The 50-Day EMA                        

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8548 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8500 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.84653 @ 06:28 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25    
• SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing 

EURGBP traded lower into the Wednesday close. The cross is trading below an important resistance at 0.8500, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. Gains since Jun 14 appear to be a correction. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger.   

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain IN The Driver’s Seat   

• RES 4: 163.72 2.0% 10-dma envelope      
• RES 3: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 161.51 @ 06:46 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 160.26/159.32 Low Jun 28 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 157.47 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low  
• SUP 3: 157.21 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4 
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. The breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the bullish follow through since, reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 159.32.  

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 175.52 2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 3: 175.40 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 174.77 1.382 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing  
• RES 1: 174.52 High Jul 03
• PRICE: 174.17 @ 07:03 BST Jul 04
• SUP 1: 173.09/172.28 Low Jul 2 / 1 
• SUP 2: 171.25 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 169.44/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14 
• SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16 

The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross traded to a fresh cycle high once again yesterday. Recent gains resulted in a break of a key resistance and bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, and this highlights a clear rising trend. Sights are on 173.98, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is at 171.25, the 20-day EMA.     

AUDUSD TECHS: Range Breakout      

• RES 4: 0.6839 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 0.6771 High Jan 3                  
• RES 2: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg   
• RES 1: 0.6734 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 0.6718 @ 08:03 BST Jul 04
• SUP 1: 0.6653 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6626 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8

A strong rally in AUDUSD yesterday resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This paves the way for a climb towards 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6626,m the 50-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Trades Through Support                

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance     
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3628 @ 08:11 BST Jul 4 
• SUP 1: 1.3618/3590 Low Jul 03 / Low May 16 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

Yesterday’s sell-off  in USDCAD strengthens a short-term bearish threat. Note that price has again breached the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3678. This reinforces bearish conditions and has also resulted in a print below 1.3590, May 16 low. An extension would expose 1.3590, May 16 low and key support. The M/T trend outlook is bullish, initial resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bear Mode Condition                                     

• RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25 
• RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28  
• RES 1: 131.66 50-day EMA                    
• PRICE: 130.72 @ 05:29 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 130.28/23 76.4% of May 31 - Jun 14 rally / Low Jul 3           
• SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support 

Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The sell-off Monday undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would further strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is at 132.24, the Jun 28 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential reversal.  

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bearish Conditions                                        

• RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24     
• RES 3: 116.690 High Jun 28   
• RES 1: 116.271 20-day EMA            
• PRICE: 115.950 @ 05:41 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 115.700 Low Jul 3     
• SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally    
• SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support 

Bobl futures are trading closer to their latest lows and a bearish condition remains in place. The move down this week has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines a recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a deeper pullback towards 115.556, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.            

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bearish Outlook                            

• RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger   
• RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21       
• RES 1: 105.604/105.780 20-day EMA / High Jun 28 
• PRICE: 105.510 @ 06:03 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 105.440 61.8% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle       
• SUP 2: 105.375 Low Jun 13 
• SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7   

Schatz futures remain bearish following this week’s breach of support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.604. The move down undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 105.314, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a developing bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A break would be bullish.                     

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bear Threat Remains Present Despite A Bounce                                  

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 98.24/99.25 High Jun 28 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
• RES 1: 97.78 High Jul 3 
• PRICE: 97.70 @ Close Jul 3 
• SUP 1: 96.57 Low Jul 1      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures traded sharply lower Monday, confirming an extension of the latest bear cycle. Despite yesterday’s gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off signals scope for a continuation near-term towards 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement, where a break would further strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 98.24, the Jun 28 high. A break would instead be seen as a bullish development.  

BTP TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance 

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 116.55/117.09 50-day EMA / High Jun 21
• PRICE: 116.12 @ Close Jul 3
• SUP 1: 114.72/35 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 11 and key support 
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures have recovered from Tuesday’s 114.72 low. The bear reversal from the Jun 5 high resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, and this continues to highlight a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low, where a breach would strengthen a bearish theme. Key resistance is 117.62, Jun 5 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish. Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.09, the Jun 21 high.                       

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bullish Structure     

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6       
• RES 2: 5092.00 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 5039.84 61.8% retracement of May 16-Jun 14 sell-off   
• PRICE: 5004.00 @ 06:20 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 4903.00/4860.00 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support   
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing    

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade inside a range. The trend condition is bullish and the recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would be a positive development. A move down would instead signal a resumption of the bearish corrective cycle that started May 16 and open 4846.00, Apr 19 low and a key support.     

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Fresh All-Time High  

• RES 4: 5668.00 3.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5595.75 High Jul 3  
• PRICE: 5590.25 @ 07:20 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: 5505.46/5411.41 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support 
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Yesterday's all-time high print confirms a recent bull flag formation on the daily scale. This is a continuation pattern and reinforces bullish conditions. Sights are on the 5600.00 handle. Support to watch is 5505.46, the 20-day EMA.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North             

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $88.04 - High Apr 19    
• PRICE: $86.83 @ 07:05 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: $83.31 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4  
• SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support  

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on Tuesday. Price gains maintain the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for an extension towards $89.32, Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. On the downside, initial support to watch is $83.31, the 50-day EMA.   

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Key Resistance Remains Exposed                  

• RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.38 - High Jul 2   
• PRICE: $83.33 @ 08:24 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: $79.37 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support 

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded higher Tuesday, before giving back some gains. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been cleared. This opens $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.37, the 50-day EMA.        

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present     

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7               
• PRICE: $2354.7 @ 07:20 BST Jul 4
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7       
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28  
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold traded higher yesterday but, price remains inside a range, for now. A bear threat is present and the sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2320.8. A clear break of this EMA would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would also strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.    

SILVER TECHS: Recovers From Its Recent Lows                  

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $30.853/32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger / High Jun 21               
• PRICE: $30.317 @ 08:16 BST Jul 4 
• SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26              
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver is recovering from its recent lows. Support at $28.659, Jun 13 low and bear trigger, has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open $27.971, May 13 low. Note that MA studies are in  a bull-mode set-up. This highlights a M/T uptrend and suggests that the bear leg since $32.518, the May 20 high, is likely a correction. First resistance to watch is $30.853, the Jun 21 high. A break would be a bullish development.