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EURHUF Returns Back Above 390.00 Ahead of NBH

HUF
EURHUF has returned back above 390.00, up 0.7% on the day. While moderate single currency weakness and heightened geopolitical risk are providing a headwind to the broader EM FX basket, signs of a deepening rift with the EU (see more here) and a more dovish policy mix are likely the primary drivers behind forint underperformance compared to its EMEA peers. A sustained break above 390.00 could expose the Sep 29/Aug 03 highs of 394.65/394.67 as focus turns to tomorrow's NBH meeting.
  • Notably, PLNHUF has broken above the Dec 12 high of 89.06, reaching its highest level since December 2022. The cross has now bounced 3.7% off of the mid-January lows as easing political risk in Poland and the aforementioned HUF weakness continue to provide upside momentum. Meanwhile, CZKHUF has pierced above the 200-DMA for the first time since September.
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