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EURHUF Trades Higher Amid Orban Comments Ahead of NBH

HUNGARY
Comments from Prime Minister Orban has spurred EUR/HUF higher, with Orban reiterating his stance on EU-Russian sanctions and sending arms to Ukraine. Orban also said that Hungary is not part of the ‘mainstream’ EU approach on Ukraine, and that Ukraine can not win its war against Russia. Price action sees HUF among the weakest currency performers in the EM space.
  • The comments precede the NBH rate decision this afternoon, with consensus calling for an unchanged base rate but a cut to the effective rate of 18% (See our full preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/53036/MNINBH...)
  • EUR/HUF has traded through the 50-day EMA which intersects today at 376.52, exposing 380.29, the Apr 20 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this level would suggest scope for a stronger recovery. Nevertheless, the primary technical trend direction remains down and a breach of 368.05, the May 16 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend and re-open 366.41, the Mar 30 2022 low.
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