NORGES: RATES PROBABLY AT CURRENT LEVEL QUITE SOME TIME

RATES MAY NEED TO BE ON HOLD LONGER THAN ENVISIONED: NORGES

MNI: NORGES BANK LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 4.50%

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 605; OIL RIGS 499; GAS RIGS 102

BoE Data Watch

RBA Data Watch

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Euribor A Little Weaker, ~75bp Of ’24 ECB Cuts Still Priced

STIR
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Tuesday’s late downtick in Tsys and firmer-than-expected Australian CPI data (which triggered a hawkish repricing of the RBA rate path) bias Euribor futures lower, with contracts last 1.0 to 3.5 below settlement.

  • ’24 ECB-dated OIS contracts are flat to 1.5bp firmer, showing 21.5bp of cuts through the June meeting (just over 85% odds of a cut priced), with a little over 75bp of cumulative cuts showing through year end.
  • The German IFO survey headlines the Eurozone data calendar today, with ECB-speak from across the hawk-dove spectrum also due (Nagel, Schnabel, Villeroy, de Cos & Cipollone are all due).
  • Don’t expect the impending ECB-speak to move the needle, with a June cut already set up and wider division apparent within the GC re: policy preferences beyond that meeting.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.694-21.4
Jul-243.581-32.7
Sep-243.542-36.6
Oct-243.342-56.6
Dec-243.150-75.8
155 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Tuesday’s late downtick in Tsys and firmer-than-expected Australian CPI data (which triggered a hawkish repricing of the RBA rate path) bias Euribor futures lower, with contracts last 1.0 to 3.5 below settlement.

  • ’24 ECB-dated OIS contracts are flat to 1.5bp firmer, showing 21.5bp of cuts through the June meeting (just over 85% odds of a cut priced), with a little over 75bp of cumulative cuts showing through year end.
  • The German IFO survey headlines the Eurozone data calendar today, with ECB-speak from across the hawk-dove spectrum also due (Nagel, Schnabel, Villeroy, de Cos & Cipollone are all due).
  • Don’t expect the impending ECB-speak to move the needle, with a June cut already set up and wider division apparent within the GC re: policy preferences beyond that meeting.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.694-21.4
Jul-243.581-32.7
Sep-243.542-36.6
Oct-243.342-56.6
Dec-243.150-75.8