Euribor A Little Weaker, ~75bp Of ’24 ECB Cuts Still Priced

Tuesday’s late downtick in Tsys and firmer-than-expected Australian CPI data (which triggered a hawkish repricing of the RBA rate path) bias Euribor futures lower, with contracts last 1.0 to 3.5 below settlement.

• ’24 ECB-dated OIS contracts are flat to 1.5bp firmer, showing 21.5bp of cuts through the June meeting (just over 85% odds of a cut priced), with a little over 75bp of cumulative cuts showing through year end.
• The German IFO survey headlines the Eurozone data calendar today, with ECB-speak from across the hawk-dove spectrum also due (Nagel, Schnabel, Villeroy, de Cos & Cipollone are all due).
• Don’t expect the impending ECB-speak to move the needle, with a June cut already set up and wider division apparent within the GC re: policy preferences beyond that meeting.