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Euribor Futures Assess Mixed UK Labour Market Data

STIR

Euribor futures are +0.5 to +2.5 ticks through the blues as participants weigh ongoing Middle East tensions against this morning’s mixed UK labour market data.

  • As noted above, UK private regular wage growth topped consensus in Feb but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 22bps of cuts through the June meeting and 83bps through the remainder of ’24.
  • Today’s ECB speakers include Rehn, Villeroy and Vujcic. Again, major deviations from the current status quo i.e. the initial rate cut coming in June, are unlikely (Rehn’s comments yesterday supported a June move).
  • Today’s regional data calendar is headlined by Italian final March inflation and the German ZEW survey..


  • Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
    Jun-243.690-21.7
    Jul-243.563-34.5
    Sep-243.363-54.4
    Oct-243.251-65.7
    Dec-243.082-82.5



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