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Euribor Futures Broadly Unchanged Ahead Of Busy Data Calendar

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Euribor futures are broadly unchanged through the blues ahead of a busy regional data calendar today.

  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 72bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24, with 22bps of easing showing through the June meeting.
  • Yesterday evening, ECB’s de Guindos and Knot joined the contingent of speakers supporting a cautious and non-committal approach to policy beyond the June meeting, where a first rate cut seems probable.
  • French April flash inflation is the last major national print before the Eurozone-wide release at 1000BST. An in-line French print at 2.2% Y/Y should mean the Eurozone figure tracks close to consensus at 2.4% Y/Y after yesterday’s broadly in-line Spanish and German flash releases.
  • We also receive flash Q1 GDP data from Spain, Italy, Germany and the Eurozone.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.688-21.8
Jul-243.593-31.3
Sep-243.410-49.6
Oct-243.331-57.5
Dec-243.188-71.8
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Euribor futures are broadly unchanged through the blues ahead of a busy regional data calendar today.

  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 72bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24, with 22bps of easing showing through the June meeting.
  • Yesterday evening, ECB’s de Guindos and Knot joined the contingent of speakers supporting a cautious and non-committal approach to policy beyond the June meeting, where a first rate cut seems probable.
  • French April flash inflation is the last major national print before the Eurozone-wide release at 1000BST. An in-line French print at 2.2% Y/Y should mean the Eurozone figure tracks close to consensus at 2.4% Y/Y after yesterday’s broadly in-line Spanish and German flash releases.
  • We also receive flash Q1 GDP data from Spain, Italy, Germany and the Eurozone.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.688-21.8
Jul-243.593-31.3
Sep-243.410-49.6
Oct-243.331-57.5
Dec-243.188-71.8