MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Euribor Futures Firmer; Lagarde Noted FX Importance Late Wednesday

STIR

Euribor futures are +0.5 to +3.5 through the blues, as yesterday’s core global FI recovery extends a little.

  • ECB-speak once again headlines today’s regional calendar, with little notable data scheduled this morning.
  • OIS contracts price 80bps of cuts through ’24, with 22bps of cuts through the June meeting.
  • This week’s ECB speakers haven’t deviated much from the status quo re: a first rate cut in June, but comments surrounding EU/US policy linkages and geopolitical risks have provided some common themes.
  • Late Wednesday, President Lagarde stressed that the ECB will watch fluctuations in the exchange rate “very carefully”. That comes after several of this week’s speakers acknowledged that the ECB will not set policy based on US inflation dynamics.
  • Today, comments from Nagel, Centeno, Simkus and Vujcic are scheduled, while VP Guindos speaks at present.


    • Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
    Jun-243.690-21.8
    Jul-243.569-33.9
    Sep-243.381-52.7
    Oct-243.273-63.6
    Dec-243.111-79.7
    Jan-253.015-89.3
    Mar-252.888-102.1
    Apr-252.815-109.3
    Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 2025 dates are estimated.

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