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Euribor Futures Little Changed, ECB OIS Pricing 90bp Of ’24 Cuts

STIR

Euribor futures are flat to +1.0 through the blues, with Bund futures off Asia-Pac highs.

  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 90bps of cuts through the remainder of '24, versus yesterday's dovish extreme of ~95bps.
  • Today's regional calendar is limited.
  • German GfK consumer confidence was a touch higher than expected but isn’t a market mover.
  • Estonian Central Bank Governor Muller speaks at 0900GMT/1000CET. He will present the latest Estonian macroeconomic projections, so commentary on wider ECB matters may be limited.
  • Focus remains on the March flash inflation prints later this week (Spain is due tomorrow). Our full inflation preview will be released later today.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.891-1.8
Jun-243.680-22.9
Jul-243.532-37.7
Sep-243.327-58.2
Oct-243.185-72.5
Dec-243.007-90.2
Jan-252.887-102.2
Mar-252.744-116.5
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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