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Euribor Futures Little Changed, SP/FR/IT Flash HICP Highlights Weekly Calendar

STIR

Euribor futures are little changed through the blues ahead of a light regional calendar to start the week.

  • Weekend newsflow saw ECB's Nagel re-iterate comments made at an MNI webcast on Friday r.e. an increased probability of cutting rates "before the summer break".
  • Bank of Portugal Governor Centeno also stuck to familiar dovish remarks after hours on Friday.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 94bps of rate cuts through the remainder of '24 in line with Friday afternoon's levels.
  • There are 24bps of easing priced through the end of the June meeting.
  • ECB hawk Holzmann is scheduled to speak at 1030GMT/1130CET.
  • Flash inflation releases in Spain, France and Italy highlight this week's regional calendar, with the German and Eurozone-wide figures due after the Easter Break.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.888-2.1
Jun-243.668-24.2
Jul-243.513-39.6
Sep-243.301-60.8
Oct-243.145-76.4
Dec-242.968-94.1
Jan-252.839-107.0
Mar-252.690-121.9
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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