MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

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MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

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Euribor Futures Off Highs Alongside Wider Core FI

STIR

Euribor futures are -0.5 to +1.5 ticks through the blues, off highs alongside a pullback in wider core FI markets.

  • ECB-dated OIS implied rates remain close to late Wednesday levels, with 73bps of cuts priced through year end.
  • While current ’24 pricing appears consistent with some Governing Council member’s views, our Policy team’s latest sources piece highlighted the need for caution when it comes to easing beyond June, due to geopolitical risks and sensitivity to the Fed’s rate decisions.
  • Today’s ECB speakers will likely stick to that message, with little commitment beyond the ~95% discounted June cut. Appearances from Guindos, Panetta, de Cos, Centeno, Nagel and Villeroy are all scheduled.
  • Today’s regional data calendar is limited, with Italian final HICP headlining.


Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.670-23.8
Jul-243.605-30.3
Sep-243.420-48.8
Oct-243.337-57.1
Dec-243.174-73.4
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