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Euribor Futures Off Lows But Remain Weaker

STIR

Euribor futures are off intraday lows but remain -1.0 to -3.5 ticks through the blues after core FI drifted lower through the Asia-Pac session.

  • German industrial production printed a touch above consensus but was still negative on an annual basis for the 10th consecutive month.
  • ECB-dated OIS implied rates firmed a touch overnight but remain within recent ranges, with 23bps of cuts priced through the June meeting and 72bps of easing priced through year end.
  • Today’s scheduled ECB speakers include the hawkish-leaning Wunsch and the usually dovish de Cos, the latter of whom we heard from yesterday (with little deviation from the status quo, pointing to a rate cut in June, while providing little colour beyond that meeting).
  • Today’s regional data calendar includes Spanish industrial production and Italian retail sales.



Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.679-22.7
Jul-243.608-29.8
Sep-243.417-48.9
Oct-243.340-56.7
Dec-243.184-72.2

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