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Euribor Generally A Touch Lower; ECB Cut Pricing Holds, ECB Rhetoric Eyed

STIR

The Euribor strip sits flat to -3.0 ticks through the blues as core global FI markets move from Asia-Pac bests.

  • A limited bid was seen in the wake of BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida's comments/softer-than-expected Chinese CPI during Asia-Pac hours.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts are steady vs yesterday afternoon's levels, pricing 125bps of cuts through 2024. There are 16bps of easing priced through the April gathering (a reminder that over 40bps were priced over than horizon at the dovish extremes seen at the back end of 2023).
  • Today's Eurozone data docket is limited, though there are scheduled remarks from ECB's Lane at 1530GMT, with comments from the usually hawkish Vujcic and Wunsch also scheduled at 1100GMT/1200GMT respectively.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.875-3.3
Apr-243.752-15.6
Jun-243.511-39.7
Jul-243.290-61.8
Sep-243.049-85.9
Oct-242.861-104.7
Dec-242.661-124.7
Jan-252.515-139.3
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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