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Euribor moving lower this morning

STIR FUTURES
  • As core fixed income has seen a move lower over the last hour or so, the biggest moves in the STIR space have been in Euribor Whites which are down up to 4.5 ticks - effectively pricing in a more aggressive near-term ECB hiking cycle.
  • Markets now price in around 22bp (cumulatively) for a July ECB hike, up from 21bp on Friday, 53bp is priced by September (from just below 51bp on Friday) and 92bp is priced by year-end (up from 85bp on Friday).
  • Moves in SONIA futures have been more focused on the Greens / Blues. Markets continue to price in 28bp for June, 57bp by August and 108bp by year-end (from 110bp on Friday).
  • The Eurodollar futures strip is generally within 0.5-1.0 ticks of Friday's close. Markets price 53bp for June (from 54bp Friday), 102bp by July, 140bp by September and 190bp by year-end (from 189bp Friday).

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