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Euribor Strip Gives Back Early Gains

STIR

Euribor futures give back all of their early gains (and a little more in some cases) leaving futures flat to -1.5 through the Blues, with implied Dec 2024 rates at 3.08%.

  • The ECB-dated ESTR OIS strip once again shows over 90bps of cumulative cuts through the end of the December ‘24 ECB decision, vs. just over 80bps of cuts early Monday, although sits off the most dovish levels of the session.
  • Typically hawkish comments from ECB’s Nagel seemed to have a little more impact than they would normally given the dovish repricing that had been seen early this week, while a move off of support in 10-Year Bund yields would have also factored in.
  • Elsewhere, Bank of Spain Governor de Cos pushed back on rate cuts overnight.
  • A reminder that yesterday saw ECB President Lagarde reiterate previous messaging re: the inflation/growth outlook. However, she noted that the ECB would likely discuss PEPP reinvestments in the "not too distance future".
  • Today's data calendar is light, with Lagarde delivering a pre-recorded message at the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group Conference at 1600GMT. ECB's Lane also speaks after hours in a seminar on macroeconomic policy.
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