MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov Sentiment, Outlook Indexes Rise

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.36% In Week of Dec 6

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Euribor Strip Weaker; Just Over 100bps Of ECB Cuts Priced Through 2024

STIR

The Euribor strip sits weaker alongside core global FI markets, with contracts through the blues running flat to -3.0.

  • The weakness from late yesterday has seen a modest extension alongside fresh YtD highs for German benchmark yields.
  • Offshore impulses (FOMC mins, comments from BoJ Governor Ueda & weak demand at the latest 20-Year Tsy auction) are also assessed, but momentum/reaction looks to be just as, if not more, important for EUR markets.
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price just over 100bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024, moving roughly in line with our recent sources piece, which noted that expectations amongst the Governing Council currently range between 50-100bps of cuts (see here)
  • Today's docket is headlined by the flash PMI readings, with the usual focus set to fall on inflation dynamics.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.902-0.8
Apr-243.823-8.7
Jun-243.623-28.7
Jul-243.454-45.6
Sep-243.247-66.3
Oct-243.082-82.8
Dec-242.903-100.7
Jan-252.764-114.6
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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