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Euribor Twist Steepens

EUROZONE
  • The Euribor futures strip has steepened in early trade with whites up 4.0-8.0 ticks and greens/blues down 1.0-5.0 ticks., mirroring the twist steepening in euro area sovereign curves.
  • At the short end, the policy rate path implied by ECB-dated ESTR forwards is marginally lower. A 75bp hike in October is 94% priced, with the same sized hike in December 89% priced. The terminal rate sits at 3% In June 2023.
  • The ECB's Olli Rehn this morning suggested that the October hike could be 50bp or 75bp, but also indicated that the neutral rate could be reached before Christmas and that policy rates could be raised to a restrictive level if necessary in order to rein in inflation.
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  • The Euribor futures strip has steepened in early trade with whites up 4.0-8.0 ticks and greens/blues down 1.0-5.0 ticks., mirroring the twist steepening in euro area sovereign curves.
  • At the short end, the policy rate path implied by ECB-dated ESTR forwards is marginally lower. A 75bp hike in October is 94% priced, with the same sized hike in December 89% priced. The terminal rate sits at 3% In June 2023.
  • The ECB's Olli Rehn this morning suggested that the October hike could be 50bp or 75bp, but also indicated that the neutral rate could be reached before Christmas and that policy rates could be raised to a restrictive level if necessary in order to rein in inflation.