MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, February 14

MNI BRIEF: China Jan Yuan Loans, Financing Beat Expectations

CHINA JAN NEW LOANS CNY5.13 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY4.53 TRL

MNI BRIEF: China Machinery Expects Stable Trade In 2025

MNI BRIEF: China 2024 Real Estate Loan Recovered: PBOC

MNI: China To Ensure 5% GDP Amid Export Uncertainty: CASS's Yu

MNI: EUROZONE FLASH Q4 GDP +0.1% Q/Q, +0.9% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN JAN HICP -0.1% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -100 BCF TO 2,297 BCF FEB 07 WK

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

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NOK: EURNOK Up 0.2% Post GDP Reading, Crude Rally Offsets A Little

NOK
USCEEMEABulletNorwayMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America

EURNOK has moved away from session highs of 11.5916, but remains 0.2% higher today. The weaker-than-expected Q4 mainland GDP reading spurred a light dovish reaction in NOK rates, but today’s rally in oil prices has dampened some of the FX feedthrough.

  • After piercing 11.6000 yesterday, EURNOK was unable to test the November 25th low 11.5192. This level remains a key support.
  • The 20-day EMA at 11.7025 provides initial resistance, clearance of which is required to undermine a bearish theme.
  • Our commodities team have highlighted the impact of increased geopolitical tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies as drivers for today’s brent crude rally, weighed against the potential impact of US tariffs on global demand.
  • Despite the Q4 GDP reading, Nordea still expect only two cuts in 2025 – the most hawkish view out of the analysts we track. They note that “the economy is not as weak as the headline numbers indicate and growth will pick up going forward”.
  • Focus turns to Norges Bank Governor Wolden Bache's annual address on Thursday afternoon. SEB note that “the address aims at highlighting long-term and structural economic policy challenges”, so new policy hints are not the norm. If near-term policy considerations are raised in the speech, we expect guidance for a 25bp March cut to be re-iterated.
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EURNOK has moved away from session highs of 11.5916, but remains 0.2% higher today. The weaker-than-expected Q4 mainland GDP reading spurred a light dovish reaction in NOK rates, but today’s rally in oil prices has dampened some of the FX feedthrough.

  • After piercing 11.6000 yesterday, EURNOK was unable to test the November 25th low 11.5192. This level remains a key support.
  • The 20-day EMA at 11.7025 provides initial resistance, clearance of which is required to undermine a bearish theme.
  • Our commodities team have highlighted the impact of increased geopolitical tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies as drivers for today’s brent crude rally, weighed against the potential impact of US tariffs on global demand.
  • Despite the Q4 GDP reading, Nordea still expect only two cuts in 2025 – the most hawkish view out of the analysts we track. They note that “the economy is not as weak as the headline numbers indicate and growth will pick up going forward”.
  • Focus turns to Norges Bank Governor Wolden Bache's annual address on Thursday afternoon. SEB note that “the address aims at highlighting long-term and structural economic policy challenges”, so new policy hints are not the norm. If near-term policy considerations are raised in the speech, we expect guidance for a 25bp March cut to be re-iterated.