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Euro Crosses Moderately Reverse Higher as Political Risks Stabilise

FOREX
  • The single currency has traded on a better footing Monday as markets were given a degree of reassurance surrounding the political risk uncertainties in France. A moderate compression of EGB spreads has helped the Euro trade higher against the majority of its G10 counterparts, although ranges across the FX majors remain subdued overall.
  • EURUSD has edged from 1.0700 to 1.0725 across the US session, and has also been assisted by more optimistic price action in equity markets. More notable has been the solid bounce for the EURJPY, which matches the likes of EURAUD and EURNZD which all look set to close around 0.5% in the green Monday.
  • For EURJPY, despite piercing a key support at 16803, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, the trend structure remains bullish, and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. A clear breach of this line would undermine the bullish theme and highlight a potential reversal. Initial firm resistance is at 170.14, the Jun 13 high.
  • The largest net shifts in positioning last week see the NZD and GBP net longs improve, while the EUR and MXN net longs were trimmed, and the AUD and CAD net shorts extended. Meanwhile, the CAD net position slips to a new series low, with the net short now amounting to 42.1% of open interest - a fresh 52 week low.
  • Immediate attention shifts to Tuesday’s RBA decision & press conference before US retail sales and industrial production take focus later in the session.
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