FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

EURO SUMMARY: Option Expiries/Cautious ECB Likely to Contain Euro Volatility

EURO SUMMARY
  • As noted, we would not expect any signs of the ECB pre-committing to another cut in October as with inflation close to target there is no urgency to do so. Moreover, indications of back-to-back cuts would undermine President Lagarde’s previous assertion that policy rates will not necessarily move lower in a linear fashion.
  • The reiteration of a cautious approach and the significant number of expiries within close proximity of current spot should limit the scope for a significant EUR adjustment. As a reminder, there is an impressive 13.5bn of options rolling off between 1.0945/1.1055 in EURUSD at today’s NY cut. Overnight straddle pricing for Friday implies roughly a 77pip range for the pair.
  • Therefore, nearby technical levels may cap the price action, and present some opportunities amid the US PPI and jobless claims data, due for release at 1330BST/0830. The 50-day EMA continues to be highlighted as support, intersecting at 1.0980 and below here 1.0950 pivot support is noted. Initial resistance is not seen until 1.1091, the Sep 9 high.

 

 

 

CEEMEABulletGlobalForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
CEEMEABulletGlobalForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.