Eurodollar Futures Weekly........>

US EURODLR FUTURES: Eurodollar Futures Weekly Update: Another volatile week for

short end trying to price in chances of more than 25bp rate cut at Sep FOMC

meet. Doves hopeful. While 25bps remains fully priced in, chances of 50bp cut

had fallen to just over 10% Fri morning vs. appr 55% wk ago (MNI PINCH/OIS

model). Today's China tariff retaliation and recent Twitter threat from Pres

Trump in response boosted the short end as 50bp cut chances back above 50%.

- Trade concerns continue to weigh on global economies and triggering growing

fear of a coming recession at home and abroad. There was no mention of further

rate cuts when the July 30-31 FOMC minutes released Wednesday, weighing on the

short end as dovish expectations cooled. Several favored maintaining target

range in July (a couple wanted 50 bps cut) while most saw 25 bps cut as

"recalibration" or "mid-cycle adjustment".

- Eurodlr futures net on wk: after surging last 3 wks, lead EDU9 receded 0.040

to 97.98, EDZ9 through EDM0 are 0.035-0.050 lower; Reds (EDU0-EDM1) lower by

0.020-0.005, while Greens (EDU1-EDM2) through Golds (EDU3-EDM4) are 0.020-0.030

higher (after gaining 0.250-0.300 last two wks).