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US EURODLR FUTURES: Eurodollar Futures Weekly Update: While US/China trade and
geopolitical angst hasn't dissipated, the "risk-off" tone actually moderated
some this week with short end rates scaling back support for the second
consecutive week even as 30YY made a new all-time low of 1.0952%.
- Markets still price in 100% chance of a 25bp rate cut at the September 17-18
FOMC, but chances of a 50bps cut have slipped back to around the mid-teens from
54.9% a week ago.
- Why the change? Perhaps mkts had come to far/too fast in pricing in larger
rate cuts despite constant castigation from Pres Trump, a lack of major
fireworks at the G7 summit last weekend helped mollify. Risk-off receded Thu as
expectations of trade negotiations via phone kept markets on edge, but no calls
or breakthroughs (or call flor that matter) were ever announced.
- Eurodlr futures: second consecutive week the lead EDU9 futures receded 0.040
to 97.94, while EDZ9 through EDM0 fell 0.090-0.030; Reds (EDU0-EDM1) were mixed
at -0.015 to +0.020, while Greens (EDU1-EDM2) through Golds (EDU3-EDM4) are
0.025 higher (after gaining 0.250-0.300 last two wks).