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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessTsy/Eurodollar Roundup
Tsys remain under pressure in late trade, 30Y looking to extend recent session lows even as equities trade weaker/off lows amid sporadic program selling -- squaring up ahead the extended holiday weekend.
- Yield curves only mildly steeper despite the better long end selling, 5s30s just over 56.78 in late trade; 30YY climbs to 2.1212% (shy of Mon's 2.1491% high); 10YY tapped 1.7770% vs. Mon's 1.8064% high.
- Rates took the large Dec Sales miss in stride: headline -1.9% M/M vs -0.1% expected, with ex-auto/gas -2.5% vs -0.2% expected -- trimming losses w/stocks to session highs by midmorning. Ongoing geopol tension between US and allies vs. Russia over Ukraine border troop build.
- Steady refrain from hawkish Fed officials underscoring 3-4 .25bps hikes (more likely the latter) starting in March emboldened sellers and option hedgers. Fed enters media blackout at midnight through Jan 27, day after FOMC annc.
- With March becoming a crowded trade, option accts started shifting focus to mid-year (give or take a month or two) for more aggressive lift-off than currently priced in. For context: Fed Waller suggested during Bbg interview late Thu that if inflation remains high “the case will be made for four, maybe five hikes”.
- Near a perfect storm really for edge/potential profitability in putting on risk abatement hedges or simply for speculation – June was main focus today w/ paper buying June 98.93/99.06/99.18 put fly buyer -- EDM2 is at 99.265 -- looking for underlying to drift near that center strike for max profit. Anecdotal observations: implieds elevated, put skew still favored
- The 2-Yr yield is up 7.2bps at 0.9648%, 5-Yr is up 7bps at 1.5428%, 10-Yr is up 6.2bps at 1.7663%, and 30-Yr is up 6.4bps at 2.1066%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.