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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
DIESEL
European diesel and gasoil imports are expected to reach 981kbpd in October, down by 42% on the year and 11% below September levels according to Bloomberg. This is largely due to a significant decline in shipments from the East, mainly Saudi Arabia and India, due to seasonal maintenance.
- Middle Eastern shipments to Europe are around 700kbpd but the risk is that this will drop markedly in the coming weeks due to refinery maintenance in the wider Arabian Sea region, David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa said.
- Imports from Saudi Arabia are forecast to drop by more than half of September levels to 106kbpd. Shipments from India are expected to drop by 38% month on month in October to 156kbpd.
- US diesel flows to Europe are also set to fall to a six-month low of around 125kbpd due to refinery maintenance.
- In contrast, shipments from Turkey have risen by around 9% on the month to 122kbpd in October according to Bloomberg, with regional suppliers including Turkey now account for 69% of all European imports, up from 57% in 2022, Vortexa data show.
- Refinery works and a light crude basket have supported diesel prices with European gasoil cracks well above the five-year average for this time of the year. Additionally, a tight market in the Americas has caused Europe to be competing with South America for US volumes.
- EU Gasoil-Brent up 0.1$/bbl at 25.82$/bbl
- “If that strong demand from the Americas continues and East of Suez maintenance curtails supplies to the Atlantic Basin, there may be further upside for diesel pricing,” Vortexa’s Wech said.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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