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EUROPEAN FISCAL: EZ Q1 Deficit Falls To 3.2% of GDP

EUROPEAN FISCAL

The provisional Q1 Eurozone deficit (seasonally adjusted) fell to 3.2% of GDP (vs 4.0% in Q4 2023). This came as total expenditure fell to 49.4% of GDP (vs 50.7% prior) while revenues dropped a lesser extent to 46.2% (vs 46.7% prior).

  • The fall in these ratios reflected falls in absolute seasonally adjusted revenue/expenditure as well as a rise in nominal GDP.
  • Of the largest Eurozone countries, the deficit rose in Germany to 2.8% of GDP (vs 2.5% prior), fell in France to 5.6% (vs 5.9% prior) and was constant in Spain at 3.2%. The Italian Q1 data was released by ISTAT earlier this month, with the non-seasonally adjusted deficit rising to 8.8% of GDP (vs 7.4% prior).
  • The EC forecasts the Eurozone-wide budget deficit to ease to 3.0% of GDP in 2024 (vs 3.6% in 2023), and overall Government debt to GDP to rise to 90% (vs 88.6% in 2023). 
  • On Friday, the European Council is set to confirm Excessive Deficit Procedures against seven EU countries (including France, Italy and Belgium), after the European Commission proposed the notion in its Spring Package on June 19.
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