MNI NBP WATCH: Rate Hold Seen After Governor's Hawkish Tilt
MNI (LONDON) - The National Bank of Poland is expected to leave key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with attention instead focused on its Governor following his unexpectedly hawkish statement after December’s Monetary Policy Council Meeting.
The NBP held its reference rate at 5.75% last month, a decision that is likely to be repeated following January’s meeting. However, Adam Glapinski’s subsequent remark that a debate on easing is unlikely to start before Q4 2025 drew criticism from a number of MPC colleagues. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: NBP Will Cut Before 2026 - Ex-FinMin Official)The National Bank of Poland is expected to leave key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with attention focused on its Governor following his unexpectedly hawkish statement after December’s Monetary Policy Council Meeting.
The NBP held its reference rate at 5.75% last month, a decision that is likely to be repeated following January’s meeting. However, Adam Glapinski’s subsequent remark that a debate on easing is unlikely to start before Q4 2025 drew criticism from a number of MPC colleagues. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: NBP Will Cut Before 2026 - Ex-FinMin Official)
CPI inflation rose from 4.7% in November to 4.8% in December - well above the Bank’s target of 2.5% +/1 percentage point, but still below the market consensus of 5.0%. The government’s decision to partially extend energy subsidies into this year has removed a degree of doubt, with price pressures seen fading from Q1 onwards, although uncertainties do remain. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: Too Soon To Declare Inflation Victory - NBP's Tyrowicz)
It is unclear whether Glapinski will double-down on his previous assertion, or if more dovish heads will have gained ground by the time of Friday’s press conference. Further dissent from MPC members - perhaps even those usually as close to the governor – seems likely in days to come. (See (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: NBP Likely To Hold Rates In 2024 - Dabrowski)
CPI inflation rose from 4.7% in November to 4.8% in December - well above the Bank’s target of 2.5% +/1 percentage point, but still below the market consensus of 5.0%. The government’s decision to partially extend energy subsidies into this year has removed a degree of doubt, with price pressures seen fading from Q1 onwards, although uncertainties do remain. (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: Too Soon To Declare Inflation Victory - NBP's Tyrowicz)
It therefore remains to be seen whether Glapinski will double-down on his previous assertion, or if more dovish heads will have gained ground by the time of Friday’s press conference. Should that not be the case, it seems likely we will see further dissent from MPC members - perhaps even those usually as close to the governor - in the days to come. (See (See MNI EM INTERVIEW: NBP Likely To Hold Rates In 2024 - Dabrowski)