MNI BRIEF: China CPI Expected To Rise Moderately - NBS

MNI BRIEF: China Aug Output, Investment Hit Lowest Of The Year

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY138.7 Bln via OMO Saturday

CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +4.5% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.6% Y/Y: NBS

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY138.7 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS SAT

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Central Bank Sees Further Disinflation

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Slovakia Auction, BoE APF on Monday

MNI BRIEF: China Aug M1 Drops Further To Hit Record Low

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

EUROPEAN FISCAL: French Budget Deficit Widens In Line With Seasonal Norms In Jul

EUROPEAN FISCAL
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

 The French YTD general government budget deficit widened in July, but this dynamic is in line with seasonal norms. The YTD deficit stood at E156.9bln in July 2024 (vs E103.5bln in June). 

  • The YTD deficit was lower than the July 2023 outturn of E169.0bln, primarily due to a E7.5bln EU Recovery and Resilience Plan payment in July ’24. However, it has still grown at a much faster rate than in 2018/2019.
  • In Q1, the 4Q rolling sum of the general government budget deficit was 5.5% of GDP.
  • Although monthly tracking suggests that the budget deficit grew slightly less in Q2 than in Q1, this may be offset by lower nominal GDP growth of 0.4% Q/Q (vs 0.7% in Q1).
  • Reuters reported this morning that the deficit is at risk of reaching 5.6% of GDP this year due to a shortfall of tax revenue. This would exceed current analyst estimates of 5.2%, and the EC’s 5.3% projection.
  • All forecasts remain comfortably above the EC’s 3% medium-term debt/GDP threshold.
  • Ongoing fiscal concerns are heightened by the ongoing period of political paralysis, with the pathway to forming a Government still unclear at this stage (see: “FRANCE: Macron Continues Talks w/Political Leaders As PM Attention Shifts Right”, Sep 3).
202 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

 The French YTD general government budget deficit widened in July, but this dynamic is in line with seasonal norms. The YTD deficit stood at E156.9bln in July 2024 (vs E103.5bln in June). 

  • The YTD deficit was lower than the July 2023 outturn of E169.0bln, primarily due to a E7.5bln EU Recovery and Resilience Plan payment in July ’24. However, it has still grown at a much faster rate than in 2018/2019.
  • In Q1, the 4Q rolling sum of the general government budget deficit was 5.5% of GDP.
  • Although monthly tracking suggests that the budget deficit grew slightly less in Q2 than in Q1, this may be offset by lower nominal GDP growth of 0.4% Q/Q (vs 0.7% in Q1).
  • Reuters reported this morning that the deficit is at risk of reaching 5.6% of GDP this year due to a shortfall of tax revenue. This would exceed current analyst estimates of 5.2%, and the EC’s 5.3% projection.
  • All forecasts remain comfortably above the EC’s 3% medium-term debt/GDP threshold.
  • Ongoing fiscal concerns are heightened by the ongoing period of political paralysis, with the pathway to forming a Government still unclear at this stage (see: “FRANCE: Macron Continues Talks w/Political Leaders As PM Attention Shifts Right”, Sep 3).