European Gas Extends Pull Back with Warm Temperatures to Ease

TTF has opened 10% down on the day to extend the pull back from a peak of nearly 50€/MWh last week as LNG imports remain strong and on a slightly cooler weather forecast.

• TTF JUL 23 down -10.3% at 31.4€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -6.2% at 47.45€/MWh
• TTF surged higher early last week with extended Norway maintenance and warm weather in Europe triggering market short covering. The pull back in European gas has allowed the front JKM contract to move back to a premium to TTF.
• Warm weather is expected to continue across most of Europe this week before edging back slightly cooler next week although still holding above normal.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are back down to 236.4mcm/d today with additional capacity reductions at Kollsnes today due to pipeline process problems. Works at several plants and fields were last week extended into July.
• Total European LNG sendout remains strong having averaged just over 400mcm/d in the last week despite the lower US LNG exports due to Sabine Pass LNG maintenance and amid maintenance at Montoir LNG and Fos Tonkin LNG this week.
• European storage injections continue at about 17% below normal over the last week with total stocks up to 73.98% full on 17 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 57.3%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 65.1mcm/d.