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European Gasoline Flows to Change in 2024: Argus

OIL PRODUCTS

European gasoline export flows could change in 2024, as traders seek new outlets for the region’s growing oversupply, according to Argus.

  • Europe is structurally oversupplied with gasoline and relies on exports to clear the surplus volumes, worsened by the move from Russian Urals crude to higher gasoline yield lighter-sweeter grades.
  • While WAF is the primary outlet for European gasoline, around 28% of exports, new Middle East refineries may capture market share.
  • Tightening laws on fuel quality exports from ARA could also restrict exports to WAF, although this demand could be met by exporting from other European jurisdictions.
  • The ramp-up of the 650k b/d Dangote refinery in Nigeria and the return of the 210k b/d Port Harcourt plant could also hit WAF demand for Europe’s gasoline; traders remain tentative about the project’s timeline and impact.
  • The US Atlantic Coast may be one outlet, taking NWE cargoes instead of from the USGC.

Source: Argus

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