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European handover: 17 February, 2022

MARKET INSIGHT
  • There was no new hawkish impetusus from the FOMC Minutes yesterday: faster pace of hiking than 2015 warranted, faster pace of balance sheet reduction than 2017 to 2019, the one takeaway was regarding langugage on reinvesting maturing/sales of MBS into Treasuries.
  • The overnight session has been dominated by Russia news: a US official pointed to a further 7,000 Russian troops near the Ukraine border and then there were reports in Russian state media accusing Kyiv of launching an attack at several targets in Luhansk People's Republic in violation of Minsk agreements (although this has been denied in headlines released around 6:30GMT). The talk of the Ukrainian action saw core fixed income hit highs overnight, although we have since come back a little. TY1 reached a high of 126-15+ from its close of 125-26 yesterday (we now are up 0-08+ at 126+02+).
  • Note that shortly after the European close yesterday, oil came under pressure after French Foreign Minister Le Drian suggested that "it is a question of days" when it comes to concrete developments on an Iranian nuclear deal. We have since retraced much of the downward move, largely helped by the Russian news.
  • We also received Australian labour market data overnight where the headline beat expectations but hours work tumbled. For more see here.

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