EUROPEAN INFLATION
Eurozone Final HICP Y/Y came a tenth (to 1dp) softer than flash in September at 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.8% flash, 2.2% prior), whilst printing in-line with the flash sequential reading at -0.1% M/M (non-seasonally adjusted). We had flagged the risk of this downward revision following the French/Italian/Greek final data already released this week. Services and Energy inflation softened a tenth more than the flash reading.
- Rounding flattered the downward revision though, with headline HICP at 1.74% Y/Y on an unrounded basis (vs 1.77% flash).
- Core inflation (ex energy, food, alcohol, & tobacco) printed in-line with flash at 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.8% in August) and 0.1% M/M (vs 0.3% prior).
- The final reading shows the contribution from services softened by 0.12ppts to the lowest since April at 1.76ppts, following a jump up in August largely due to the Paris Olympics.
- The energy inflation contribution was the most significant driver of this month's change; contributing -0.60ppts from -0.29ppts in August. This is the largest negative contribution since January.
- Non-energy industrial goods remained broadly stable at 0.12ppts (vs 0.11ppts prior).
- Processed food, alcohol and tobacco's contribution also softened marginally to 0.39ppts, after remaining at 0.41ppts for the prior two months - making it the lowest contribution since November 2021.
- In contrast, unprocessed foods contributions rose a touch to 0.07ppts after remaining at 0.05ppts for the prior two months.
- At a country level for headline Y/Y HICP, there were downward revisions of 0.3ppt for Cyprus, 0.2ppt for Belgium and Ireland and 0.1ppt for France and Italy. Greece and Croatia saw 0.1ppt upward revisions.
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