- US Tsy yields are relatively steady, as markets await the FOMC mins later. JGB futures are slightly weaker and near session cheaps, -3 compared to settlement levels. BoJ board member Takata stated that the central bank is in a position to adjust policy rates further if the outlook is met.
- The RBNZ cut rates 50bps as expected, and signaled a slower pace of easing going forward. NZD/USD rebounded from earlier lows, while the USD is mostly softer elsewhere. Australian wages continued to slow in y/y terms.
- Later the FOMC meeting minutes are published and the Fed’s Jefferson speaks. In terms of data, there are January US housing starts/permits, NY Fed February services, UK January CPI/PPI and euro area December current account.
MARKETS
- Tsys futures are slightly lower today, ranges are narrow while volumes are low. TU is -00¼ at 102-21⅞, while TY is -00+ 108-26+
- There has been very little in the way of US headlines throughout the session. The RBNZ cut rates for 50bps, while BOJs Takata spoke earlier where he reiterated that the central bank is in a position to adjust policy rates further if the outlook is met. Takata stated that risks of big market moves have been lowered, giving the central bank more flexibility.
- Cash tsys yields are flat to 1bps lower. The 2yr is -0.8bps at 4.297%, while the 10yr is -0.4bps at 4.564%.
- MNI's preview of the Minutes includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum, and key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the January meeting. PDF here
- Later today we have Housing stars, Building Permits, & FOMC meeting minutes.
UK DATA: Brightmine: Median Pay Awards At Lowest Level Since 2021
Brightmine median basic pay awards in the 3 months to January came in at 3.0%, the second consecutive reading where pay awards have remained at the lowest level since December 2021 (after the 3 months to December figure was revised to 3.0% from 3.3%).
- The press release notes this is "signaling a shift toward more restrained pay increases after a period of elevated awards."
- The dispersion in pay awards narrowed in January with the interquartile range having narrowed to between 2.5% and 4.0% in January, driven by the upper quartile falling.
- Looking ahead, pay awards are likely to remain at low levels due to the rising cost from employee National Insurance contributions rising.
- The rolling quarter of data is based on 69 pay settlements between November 2024 and January 2025, representing more than 95,000 employees (vs 22 pay award covering 227,000 employees between October and December).
JGBS: Bull-Steepener Turns Into Bear-Steepener After BoJ Takata
JGB futures are slightly weaker and near session cheaps, -3 compared to settlement levels.
- The key local driver for the market was a speech by BoJ board member Takata. He reiterated that the central bank is in a position to adjust policy rates further if the outlook is met.
- He added that further policy adjustments should still in gradual (in the aftermath of the Jan hike), but noted such shifts need to be taken to avoid upside inflation risks (with the weaker yen and wage hikes a risk). The central bank is closer to achieving its inflation target as well. Monetary conditions remain easy Takata noted, even after the Jan hike.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Cash JGBs have shifted from a modest bull-steepener earlier in the session to a mild bear-steepener, with yields now flat to 1bp higher across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bp higher at 1.442% after hitting a fresh cycle high of 1.446%.
- Swap rates are 1-5bps higher, with the 20-year underperforming. Swap spreads are wider.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see weekly International Investment Flow data alongside the Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 5-15.5-year.
JAPAN DATA: Imports Surge, Weighing On Trade Position, Surplus With US Falls
Japan's January trade figures were mixed. Exports rose 7.2% y/y, close to the 7.7% forecast and up from the prior 2.8% pace. Imports surged though to 16.7%y/y, from 1.7% in Dec and against a 9.3% forecast. Not surprisingly, this drove weaker than forecast trade balance outcomes. The headline deficit was -¥2758.8bn, versus a ¥132.5bn surplus prior. In seasonally adjusted terms, the deficit was -¥856.6bn, versus -¥221.0bn prior.
- Exports were still down -2.0% in m/m terms. The y/y rise in exports puts Japan a little out of line with other NEA export orientated economies. These economies saw slower y/y momentum for Jan. Exports to China fell 6.2%y/y, and down 15.1% to the EU, but rose to the US 8.1%. The trade surplus with the US was down from Dec's level, falling by more than half.
- In volume terms exports were down 1.7% y/y, compared to Dec's pace of -2.6%.
- Import volumes were much stronger up 8.7% y/y. This is the strongest pace since 2021 in y/y terms. Import volumes were positive in y/y terms from all key regions, including the US (+2.4%), which could be an ongoing focus point as countries look to avoid tariff penalties from the US (by purchasing more from the US).
- It may also signal a firmer domestic demand backdrop. The chart below overlays import volumes y/y versus y/y real GDP growth. Import trends tend to volatile though (the white line on the chart)
- The weaker trade deficit position unwinds a modestly improving trend we saw through Q4 last year.
Fig 1: Japan Import Volumes & GDP Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
JAPAN DATA: Core Machine Orders Weaker Than Forecast
Other Japan data released showed core machine orders for Dec weaker than forecast. We fell 1.2% m/m, against a 0.5% forecast and 3.4% prior. In y/y terms we printed 4.3% (against a 7.5% forecast and 10.3% prior).
- We saw weakness for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing orders. Manufacturing was still positive y/y, albeit just.
- The chart below overlays core machine orders against Japan Capex (ex software spend). The softer machine order read is hinting at a slightly weaker capex backdrop, but arguably we need to see a firmer downtrend in machine orders to be more confident in such a call.
- Note we get Q4 capex data on March 4.
Fig 1: Japan Core Machine Order & Capex (Ex Software) Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed After Q4 Wages Data, Jobs Data Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -1.5) sit modestly weaker after today’s release of Q4 Wages data.
- The Q4 wage price index (WPI) rose 0.7% q/q and 3.2% y/y down from the upwardly revised Q3 0.9% q/q & 3.6% y/y. Q4 was in line with yesterday’s updated RBA forecasts and its statement that “wage pressures have eased”.
- The quarterly increase in Q4 was 0.1pp below consensus and the lowest since Q1 2022. However, with productivity growth falling, the RBA pointed out that unit labour costs remain elevated.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -3bps.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
- The bills strip is little changed.
- The local calendar will see January jobs data tomorrow, with the market expecting +20k and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, +0.1ppt.
- Yesterday, RBA Governor Bullock noted the labour market’s unexpected strength and cautioned that market expectations for further rate cuts are not guaranteed.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-7bps firmer than yesterday’s pre-RBA levels, with mid-2025 leading the rise. A 25bp rate cut in April is given an 18% probability, with a cumulative 44bps of easing priced by year-end.
AUSTRALIA DATA: Q4 Wage Data Show Easing Pressures
The Q4 wage price index (WPI) rose 0.7% q/q and 3.2% y/y down from the upwardly-revised Q3 0.9% q/q & 3.6% y/y. Q4 was in line with yesterday’s updated RBA forecasts and its statement that “wage pressures have eased”. The quarterly increase in Q4 was 0.1pp below consensus and the lowest since Q1 2022. However, with productivity growth falling, the RBA pointed out that unit labour costs remain elevated.
- Q4 was a low 0.7% q/q printing at 0.65%. The moderation was predominantly driven by the public sector which tends to be dominated by enterprise agreements. Public sector wages rose 0.6% q/q down from 0.8% in Q3 and 1.4% in Q4 2023. They are now up 2.8% y/y, the lowest since Q4 2022.
- Private sector wages only moderated slightly from 0.8% q/q & 3.5% y/y to 0.7% & 3.3% y/y in Q4. This was still the lowest annual growth since Q2 2022.
- While the labour market remains tight with the RBA observing that it has “tightened a little further in late 2024”, it appears not to be reflected in wage growth. The ABS notes though that “individual arrangements”, which tend to reflect labour market conditions, accounted for less of the increase in Q4 2024 than previous Q4s. SEEK advertised salaries are moderating though with Q4 averaging 3.6% y/y growth down from 4.0% in Q3.
- 14% of private sector jobs received a wage increase in Q4 2024 down 2pp from Q4 2023 and the size also moderated to 3.7% from 4.4%
Australia wages ex bonuses y/y%
AUSTRALIA: January Holidays Add Uncertainty To Employment Data
With the RBA saying in its February meeting statement that the labour market “tightened a little further in late 2024” and Governor Bullock admitting that it was the strongest argument for rates to be left on hold, January jobs data on Thursday are likely to be watched closely. Holidays though could make it volatile. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 20k rise in employment after December’s 56.3k and a 0.1pp tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.
- Employment forecasts range from +5k to +40k but local banks are all expecting it to print below consensus. ANZ and CBA are projecting +10k and NAB and Westpac +15k.
- There is a significant probability that people took time off between jobs in January to coincide with summer holidays. Thus any volatility needs to be looked through. In January 2024, employment rose only 2k and then jumped 113.9k in February.
- Forecasters are split over whether the unemployment rate will be unchanged at 4.0% (11 analysts on Bloomberg) or increase to 4.1% (14 analysts). CBA, NAB and Westpac are all in line with consensus at 4.1%, while ANZ expects it to be unchanged at 4.0%.
- The participation rate is expected to be steady at 67.1%, an equal record high.
- Given that the RBA looks at a range of labour market indicators, the trend in hours worked, the underemployment and youth unemployment rates will also be important.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Cheaper Following RBNZ Gov. Orr’s Presser
NZGBs closed 1-3bps cheaper, settling near the middle of today’s ranges after reversing gains from an earlier rally of 4-5bps following the RBNZ policy decision. The shift came after Governor Orr’s press conference tempered market sentiment.
- The RBNZ’s MPC cut the cash rate by 50bps to 3.75%, in line with unanimous forecasts, bringing total easing to 175bps.
- Governor Orr noted that while underlying inflation remains above the target band, its expected decline will allow for further easing. The RBNZ anticipates additional 25bp cuts at both the April and May meetings, provided economic conditions evolve as projected.
- The MPC is not in a hurry to bring rates to around 3% as there are still some domestic inflation pressures, but they should dissipate.
- RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will front a Finance & Expenditure Select Committee on MPS tomorrow at 0810 NZT.
- Swap rates closed 1-2bps higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 49bps of easing had been priced for today, with a cumulative 115bps by November 2025.
- Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% Apr-27 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$50mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
RBNZ Prepared To Ease Further But May Slow The Pace
The RBNZ’s MPC cut rates by 50bp to 3.75% as was expected. This brings cumulative easing to 175bp and it appears that it is prepared to ease further in 2025 if the economy develops as it expects. It has an additional 50bp of 2025 easing in its updated OCR profile than in November. It is now forecast to end this year at around the mid-point of the 2.5-3.5% range that the RBNZ estimates as neutral, down from just above 3.5%. This has been brought forward by over a year.
- The updated OCR profile suggests there is likely to be a slowdown in the pace of easing to 25bp but the current economic outlook is implying 25bp cuts at both the April 9 and May 28 meetings. There could be another 25bp in H2. The path remains consistent with Governor Orr’s view in November that rates don’t need to go below neutral to be stimulatory.
- The outlook is consistent with inflation remaining within the 1-3% target band over the medium-term thus giving the MPC room to cut rates another 50bp today. It did note though that inflation is likely to be “volatile in the near term, due to the lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices”. It revised up its 2025 inflation forecasts with Q1 now at 2.4% up from 2.0% but Q4 only 0.1pp higher at 2.5%. The midpoint has been pushed out to mid-2027.
- Heightened uncertainty from geopolitics and trade policy was highlighted with it likely to “weigh” on investment and the “net effect” on NZ inflation “currently unclear” but having inflation close to the target mid-point puts the RBNZ in the “best position” to respond.
- Employment is now expected to pick up in H2 this year as growth recovers. However, the unemployment rate forecasts are little changed with the peak still at 5.2% in H1 2025. Quarterly GDP projections were little changed.
RBNZ: 25bp Rate Cuts Expected In April & May If Economy Develops As Expected
Governor Orr stated that the expected slowing in underlying inflation, which is still above the top of the band, will allow the RBNZ to ease further and it expects 25bp at both the April and May meetings, assuming the economy develops as projected. The MPC believes that it is in the best possible position to respond to shocks with the NZD close to fair value, rates to neutral and inflation to the target mid-point.
- The MPC is not in a hurry to bring rates to around 3% as there are still some domestic inflation pressures, but they should dissipate.
- It remains very unclear what shocks are ahead and so the RBNZ’s forecasts don’t reflect the current significant uncertainties. There are not just geopolitical risks but also that it could take longer for quarterly growth to become positive and how the recovery will look in the medium-term.
- Chief economist Conroy noted that while the OCR path was revised lower in 2025 this month it was still within the confidence intervals around the November profile, but with more data the RBNZ is more confident. He also stated that there is significant uncertainty around the estimate of the neutral rate.
- There was a lot of discussion around the significant revisions to the GDP data which resulted in larger capacity constraints before early 2024 but then more excess capacity later last year. Orr noted that this made sense as previously GDP wasn’t consistent with persistent domestic inflation.
- Due to lags and large revisions associated with GDP the RBNZ has been taking signals from higher frequency data, such as PMIs and card spending, which is what prompted it to begin easing in August. Currently, they are indicating that growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 should be positive.
FOREX: NZD Rebounds From Post RBNZ Dip, USD Modestly Softer Elsewhere
The USD BBDXY index sits down a touch, but at 1289.2, is comfortably within recent ranges. Earlier USD gains, led against the NZD post the RBNZ cut, have been unwound.
- Earlier, we heard from US President Trump that 25% tariffs on autos/chips and pharma products were likely as soon as April 2. FX market impact was minimal though.
- Australian wages data continued to show an easing trend, consistent with the RBA's viewpoint and starting the easing cycle yesterday. AUD/USD didn't react though. AUD/USD saw lows of 0.6342, dragged by a softer NZD and early HK/China equity market weakness. NZD has recovered though, and China equities are back in the green. HK markets are comfortably up from lows. The A$ was last near 0.6360/65, close to recent highs at 0.6374.
- NZD/USD got to lows of 0.5678 post the RBNZ, but now sits back at 0.5715/20, more than +0.50% higher from these earlier lows. The central bank cut 50bps as expected, but suggested a slower easing pace going forward. This, along with the recovery in HK/China equities helped the NZD rebound.
- The AUD/NZD printed fresh highs of 1.1175, but sits back at 1.1120/25 now, below pre RBNZ levels.
- USD/JPY has largely been range bound, although has found selling interest above 152.00. We were last 151.75/80, close to session lows. Earlier the BoJ's Takata stated that further gradual policy adjustments can take place. This supported the yen, but only modestly.
- In terms of US yields, we are little changed at the back end, slightly lower for the 2yr.
- Looking ahead, the FOMC meeting minutes are published and the Fed’s Jefferson speaks. In terms of data, there are January US housing starts/permits, NY Fed February services, UK January CPI/PPI and euro area December current account.
ASIA STOCKS: Equities Mixed, Kospi Surges On K-Chips Act, HK Stocks Slip
Asian markets are mixed today, South Korea’s Kospi surged 2.1% to its highest level since September, driven by gains in Samsung, SK Hynix, and LG Energy after Intel’s rally fueled chip optimism. Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks retreated as Baidu’s earnings disappointed and the recent tech rally showed signs of exhaustion, with analysts warning of a potential pullback. Investors remain cautious after Donald Trump threatened fresh 25% tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, weighing on Japanese and Taiwanese stocks. Despite geopolitical concerns, Chinese investors continued to pour money into Hong Kong equities, with Tuesday’s inflows marking the largest daily purchase since early 2021, as per BBG.
- Semiconductors: Intel’s 16% rally overnight boosted sentiment around chips, the SOX also closed 1.68% higher, the move came on the back of speculation of a breakup deal involving TSMC and Broadcom. South Korean semiconductor stocks are higher on growing expectations for the K-Chips Act, which would increase tax deductions for facility investments. Samsung rose 3.4%, SK hynix gained 4.05%, and Hanmi Semiconductor soared 9.50%. Meanwhile, China’s semiconductor stocks extended gains, with Morgan Stanley highlighting increasing self-sufficiency in 2025. TSMC and Japanese chip stocks faced pressure after Trump threatened 25% tariffs on semiconductor imports.
- Chinese robotics stocks jumped after Unitree’s CEO forecasted significant industry growth by year-end. The AI-driven rally in Hong Kong tech stocks, fueled by DeepSeek’s advancements and Xi Jinping’s meeting with business leaders, faced resistance as Baidu’s weak earnings triggered profit-taking.
- NAB tumbled over 8% on weaker earnings, while HSBC hit an 11-year high before slipping ahead of earnings.
- Key Benchmarks: Japan's Nikkei -0.5%, while TOPIX is -0.40%, Hong Kong's HSI -0.30%, China's CSI 300 +0.40%, Taiwan's TAIEX is flat, South Korea's KOSPI is +2.1%, Australia's ASX 200 -0.85% while New Zealand's NZX 50 -0.15%.
OIL: Crude Holds Onto Gains, Sanction Developments Being Monitored
Oil prices are moderately higher after rising Monday/Tuesday on reports that OPEC is considering a further delay to output normalisation due to begin in April. Brent is flat at $75.85/bbl after an intraday high of $76.07 and WTI is 0.1% higher at $71.90/bbl following a peak of $72.11. The USD index is slightly lower.
- With market attention currently on the supply side, US inventory data out later today is likely to be monitored closely. There has been a substantial crude build since President Trump’s inauguration as flows from Canada rose sharply to beat tariff deadlines. Also, planned refining maintenance may also contribute to higher inventories.
- The US is tightening sanctions against Iran but oil exporters and consumers continue to find ways around them. Bloomberg reported that imports into China of Iranian crude rose 86% m/m to 1.74mbd in February with increased tanker-to-tanker transfers and other terminals. The US is aiming for Iran’s shipments to be under 10% of current levels.
- Chevron’s exports of Venezuelan oil are also being considered by the new US administration.
- Also on the supply side, talks have begun between the US and Russia on Ukraine but a peace is a long way off with Ukraine so far being excluded, Russia not accepting NATO peacekeepers but the US fine with them, and the G7 looking at tightening the current oil price cap on Russian exports.
- A Ukrainian strike on a Russian pipeline is expected to reduce flows from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea by close to a third while repairs are underway, according to Bloomberg.
- Later the FOMC meeting minutes are published and the Fed’s Jefferson speaks. In terms of data, there are January US housing starts/permits, NY Fed February services, UK January CPI/PPI and euro area December current account.
Gold Retreats after Hitting New Highs
- Gold’s relentless rise continued overnight, marching towards $3,000 / ounce.
- Opening the Asian session at $2,935.21, gold moved higher all day to a high of $2,939.65, before slipping back to $2,929.00
- A research report from Goldman Sachs set a revised target for gold to $3,100. The key determinant for the revised price is the resumption of gold purchases by Central Banks globally. (per BBG)
- Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF growth over the last year has taken it to be the largest exchange-traded fund, with nearly $632 billion in assets according to BBG.
- Data released from the State Agency Singapore show that gold shipments from the Southeast Asian nation to the US was over 10 tonnes for the month of January, up 25% from December last year.
- Usually in periods of USD strength gold declines however in recent days the underlying support for gold as a tariff and inflation hedge is evident as it continues to rise.
CHINA: Home Prices Stagnate in JAN; as Lunar Holidays Impact.
- New home prices in January fell by -0.07%, a modest improvement from the -0.08% in December.
- This represented the fifth consecutive month of improvement.
- Used home prices fell -0.34%, a modest increase from -0.31% in December.
- For used home prices, this halted a run of improving prices for four months.
- Prices for new homes fell in 42 cities, compared to 43 the month prior.
- Beijing new home prices -0.4% m/m; -5.7% y/y
- Shanghai new home prices +0.6% m/m; +5.6% y/y.
- Beijing used home prices +0.1% m/m; -3.8% y/y
- Shanghai used home prices +0.4% y/y; -2.3% y/y
- The January prices will provide little insight into the progress in the sector, as the month was impacted by the Lunar New Year holiday.
CHINA: Could The Tide Be Turning for Bond Yields in China?
- Since the lows in early January, bond yields in China have inched higher quietly. From a low of 1.01%, China’s 2YR Government bond yield has moved 39bps higher to 1.40% for yesterday’s close. For the 5-year, yesterday’s close of 1.53% represented a move of +21bps higher. The 10-year benchmark has risen from a low of 1.59% to yesterday’s close of 1.71%.
- When considering the moves in bond yields compared to the move to the CSI 300, it poses something interesting.
- Finishing 2024 at 3,934.91, the index closed yesterday at 3,912.78 – a decline of -0.56%. However, it is the move in recent trading sessions that calls for further investigation.
- Against a backdrop of a 2.7% gain in the CSI 300 during the trading sessions on Thursday and Friday last week, and Monday; the 10YR bond yield rose 7bps, and the 2YR is 13bps higher.
- This comes after a period where bond markets had been relatively calm, despite news that the PBOC had halted their bond purchases in mid-January.
- The move higher yields is also against a backdrop of comments from the PBOC Governor in Saudi Arabia on Sunday that more accommodative monetary policy can be expected.
- A further development in recent days has been the meeting between President Xi and Alibaba’s Jack Ma and other key entrepreneurs; in a sign that the relations between the President and the private sector could be improving.
- Whilst a short period move does not make a trend, the CSI 300’s rally and the inverse move from bonds is worth noting.
Figure1: CGB10YR and CGB 2YR yields (source: BBG)
CHINA: DATA PREVIEW: LPR’s to Remain Unchanged at Tomorrows Fixing.
- Tomorrow sees the fixing of the 1 and 5-year Loan Prime Rates.
- The 1-year is the reference rate for corporate loans and the 5-year the reference rate used by banks for mortgages.
- For a fourth straight month, we do not expect any change in the rates charged with the 1-year steady at 3.10% and the 5-year at 3.60%.
- Over the weekend the PBOC Governor indicated that easing of monetary policy can be expected as well as fiscal support.
- China’s top legislature begins its annual parliamentary meeting on March 5 where investors will wait to see how the recently set tone for the economy will translate into policy.
ASIA FX: IDR Weaker Ahead Of BI, THB Steady Despite Further Easing Calls
In South East Asian markets, FX trends are relatively steady. The exception being IDR weakness, which comes ahead of the BI decision later. Cross asset trends have been fairly modest. US yields are little changed ahead of the FOMC minutes later. In the equity space, we haven't seen large shifts in SEA markets.
- USD/IDR has pushed up to 16360. This is around 0.50% weaker in IDR terms versus end Tuesday levels. The 1 month NDF has lost 0.3%. We have the BI decision a little later. The BBG sell-side consensus is for no changed, but there are a number of economists forecasting a cut today. Our own bias is for no change, but we had a surprise earlier in the year with a cut, as BI's priorities shifted somewhat to economic growth. For USD/IDR spot, recent highs have rested close to 16400, while on Feb 3 we spiked to 16471.
- USD/THB is relatively steady, the pair last near 33.70/75. We have again seen both the Prime Minister and MinFin call for the BoT to lower rates in order to boost growth. The next BoT meeting is on the 26th of Feb. For USD/THB, we remain within recent ranges, tracking sideways over recent sessions.
- USD/MYR is unchanged, last near 4.4455, while USD/PHP has edged down a little to 58.10/15, but this is above recent lows sub the figure level.
- USD/INR is holding under 87.00, which may be a short term intervention point for the central bank.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 19/02/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** |  GB | Consumer inflation report |
| 19/02/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Producer Prices |
| 19/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19/02/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 19/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | labour costs |
| 19/02/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 19/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 19/02/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 19/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 19/02/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | FOMC Minutes | |
| 19/02/2025 | 1900/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Minutes |
| 19/02/2025 | 2200/1700 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 20/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 20/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | PPI |
| 20/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Construction Production |
| 20/02/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 20/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | * |  CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 20/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 20/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |