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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Flash Inflation In-Line With Tracking; Services Accelerates

EUROPEAN INFLATION

Eurozone August flash headline printed broadly in-line with MNI's tracking estimate at 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.2% cons; 2.6% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs 0.2% cons; 0.0% prior). On an unrounded basis, headline was 2.18% Y/Y and 0.16% M/M.

  • Core HICP printed in-line with consensus on a rounded basis, at 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.8% cons; 2.9% prior). On an unrounded basis, core was 2.84% Y/Y and 0.33% M/M.
  • Looking at the individual categories, services inflation rose to 4.2% Y/Y after falling to 4.0% in July, which was expected as outlined in MNI's inflation preview due to potential lagged effects from the Paris Olympics.
  • Non-energy industrial goods inflation softened after remaining stubborn for three consecutive months, printing 0.4% Y/Y (vs 0.7% prior).
  • Energy price inflation meanwhile fell as expected by 3.0% Y/Y (vs a rise of 1.2% last month), partly due to base effects but there was also a 1.0%M/M fall.
  • At a country level, annual HICP fell in 16 countries and rose in 4 countries.

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