MNI NBP Preview - Jan 2024: Questioning Hawkish Guidance
Executive Summary:
- Consensus calls for another on-hold rate decision.
- Rhetoric will be closely scrutinised for fresh hints on outlook.
- The Governor's hawkish guidance has come into question.
Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here: MNI NBP Preview - January 2024.pdf
The ten-member Monetary Policy Council (MPC) of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to stand pat on interest rates again in a well-telegraphed decision. The key puzzle for market participants and NBP watchers is the outlook for monetary policy beyond 1Q2025 in the light of a surprising hawkish pivot in Governor Adam Glapiński’s rhetoric. During his press conference in December, he pushed back his forecast for the timing of the start of the easing cycle. However, subsequent comments from several of his colleagues revealed a considerable degree of dissent, with a number of members reaffirming their openness to start the debate on loosening monetary policy in the coming months.