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EUROPEAN INFLATION: French CPI Inflation Momentum Eases In October

EUROPEAN INFLATION
CEEMEABulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

French final October HICP inflation was revised a tenth higher on a rounded basis to 1.6% Y/Y (vs 1.5% flash). On an unrounded basis, HICP inflation was 1.59% vs 1.54% prior. CPI inflation confirmed flash estimates at 1.2.% Y/Y.

  • Core CPI was steady at 1.4% Y/Y, with services seeing a one tenth upward revision to 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.4% in September) and core goods being confirmed at -0.2% Y/Y (vs -0.3% in September.
  • Looking ahead, the EC’s expected services prices (over the next 3 months) series bounced up to 6.5 in October (vs 2.7 prior), but this comes after a steady downward trend through 2024.
  • For core goods, industry expected prices have been slightly drifting higher this year, but this is offset by declines in retail expected prices.
  • INSEE’s seasonally adjusted CPI series highlights easing headline inflation momentum. The 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised rate fell to 0.65% in October, the lowest since December 2020.
  • There was a small increase in the proportion of subcomponents with annual inflation rates above 2% in October (37% vs 34% prior), but there remain just 10% of components with rates above 6% Y/Y.

 

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French final October HICP inflation was revised a tenth higher on a rounded basis to 1.6% Y/Y (vs 1.5% flash). On an unrounded basis, HICP inflation was 1.59% vs 1.54% prior. CPI inflation confirmed flash estimates at 1.2.% Y/Y.

  • Core CPI was steady at 1.4% Y/Y, with services seeing a one tenth upward revision to 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.4% in September) and core goods being confirmed at -0.2% Y/Y (vs -0.3% in September.
  • Looking ahead, the EC’s expected services prices (over the next 3 months) series bounced up to 6.5 in October (vs 2.7 prior), but this comes after a steady downward trend through 2024.
  • For core goods, industry expected prices have been slightly drifting higher this year, but this is offset by declines in retail expected prices.
  • INSEE’s seasonally adjusted CPI series highlights easing headline inflation momentum. The 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised rate fell to 0.65% in October, the lowest since December 2020.
  • There was a small increase in the proportion of subcomponents with annual inflation rates above 2% in October (37% vs 34% prior), but there remain just 10% of components with rates above 6% Y/Y.