September 30, 2024 08:38 GMT
EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Projects 1.6-1.7% Y/Y German National CPI, Core 2.7-2.8%
EUROPEAN INFLATION
From state-level data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national September flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) rose by around 0.0-0.1% M/M (August -0.1%) and rose 1.6-1.7% Y/Y (August 1.9%). See the tables below for full calculations.
- Analyst consensus stands at 1.7% Y/Y and 0.1 M/M, so there might be some marginal downside risks to headline inflation, but likely smaller in magnitude than the surprises seen to French and Spanish inflation last week.
- Current tracking of Core CPI, (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies around 2.7-2.8% (2.8% in August) and 0.0% M/M (0.1% August).
- We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at underlying drivers in due course.
- Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
| Y/Y | September (Reported) | August (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| Hesse | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.3 |
| Bavaria | 1.9 | 2.1 | -0.2 |
| Brandenburg | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 |
| Baden Wuert. | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.1 |
| Berlin | 0.8 | 1.1 | -0.3 |
| Saxony | 2.4 | 2.6 | -0.2 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 1.8 | 2.1 | -0.3 |
| Lower Saxony | 1.7 | 2.0 | -0.3 |
| Weighted average: | 1.67% | for | 85.6% |
| M/M | September (Reported) | August (Reported) | Difference |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Hesse | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Bavaria | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Brandenburg | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Baden Wuert. | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| Berlin | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Saxony | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Lower Saxony | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Weighted average: | 0.06% | for | 85.6% |
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