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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Package Holidays Pulled Spanish Sep Services Inflation Lower

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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Spanish final September HICP confirmed flash estimates at 1.7% Y/Y (vs 2.4% prior). HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy – which was not available in the flash release – eased two tenths to 2.7% Y/Y.

  • The deceleration in core inflation reflected disinflation in services and processed foods, offsetting an acceleration in core goods.
  • Services HICP inflation was 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.7% prior).
  • The flash release had highlighted an easing of leisure and culture inflation as a key driver of services disinflation in September. This component fell 5.0% M/M, implying an annual rate of 1.3% Y/Y (vs 2.4% prior). However, this was largely driven by package holidays, which fell 18.2% M/M (annual rate of 1.8% Y/Y vs 5.5% prior).
  • Transport services also fell to -4.0% Y/Y (vs -1.2% prior).
  • Core goods inflation accelerated to 1.1% Y/Y (vs 0.6% prior), driven by clothing and footwear, which rose 19.4% M/M and 4.6% Y/Y (vs 1.8% prior).
  • Meanwhile, energy (-6.7% Y/Y vs -1.7% prior) and unprocessed foods (0.4% Y/Y vs 1.2% prior) contributed to the easing of headline inflation.
  • MNI’s inflation breadth calculations indicate that 81% of ECOICOP sub-components had an annual inflation below 4% in September, the highest share since November 2021.

 

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Spanish final September HICP confirmed flash estimates at 1.7% Y/Y (vs 2.4% prior). HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy – which was not available in the flash release – eased two tenths to 2.7% Y/Y.

  • The deceleration in core inflation reflected disinflation in services and processed foods, offsetting an acceleration in core goods.
  • Services HICP inflation was 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.7% prior).
  • The flash release had highlighted an easing of leisure and culture inflation as a key driver of services disinflation in September. This component fell 5.0% M/M, implying an annual rate of 1.3% Y/Y (vs 2.4% prior). However, this was largely driven by package holidays, which fell 18.2% M/M (annual rate of 1.8% Y/Y vs 5.5% prior).
  • Transport services also fell to -4.0% Y/Y (vs -1.2% prior).
  • Core goods inflation accelerated to 1.1% Y/Y (vs 0.6% prior), driven by clothing and footwear, which rose 19.4% M/M and 4.6% Y/Y (vs 1.8% prior).
  • Meanwhile, energy (-6.7% Y/Y vs -1.7% prior) and unprocessed foods (0.4% Y/Y vs 1.2% prior) contributed to the easing of headline inflation.
  • MNI’s inflation breadth calculations indicate that 81% of ECOICOP sub-components had an annual inflation below 4% in September, the highest share since November 2021.