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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Upside Risks To German National CPI From State-Level Data

EUROPEAN INFLATION
CEEMEABulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

State-level data currently suggests upside risks to the 0.2% M/M national consensus (due at 1300GMT/1400CET today).

  • The three largest states all saw monthly inflation exceed 0.2%: NRW at 0.3% M/M, Bavaria at 0.5% and Baden Wuerttemberg at 0.7%.
  • Hesse, Saxony, and Saxony Anhalt also saw strong monthly readings.
  • Taken alongside the firmer than expected German Q3 flash GDP print, ECB-dated OIS now price 30bps of easing through the December meeting (vs 35bps pre-data), pulling back expectations for a 50bp cut.
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State-level data currently suggests upside risks to the 0.2% M/M national consensus (due at 1300GMT/1400CET today).

  • The three largest states all saw monthly inflation exceed 0.2%: NRW at 0.3% M/M, Bavaria at 0.5% and Baden Wuerttemberg at 0.7%.
  • Hesse, Saxony, and Saxony Anhalt also saw strong monthly readings.
  • Taken alongside the firmer than expected German Q3 flash GDP print, ECB-dated OIS now price 30bps of easing through the December meeting (vs 35bps pre-data), pulling back expectations for a 50bp cut.