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European LNG Flashing Oversold But Fundamentals Weak

LNG

European LNG prices fell only 0.5% on Tuesday to EUR 27.13 but are down over 16% in January to date as storage levels remain above seasonal averages and weather forecasts are suggesting milder weather into early February. Prices rose to a high of EUR 27.98 early in the session on news of US/UK strikes on Houthi positions, but they then trended lower to EUR 26.63.

  • Technicals are now pointing to European LNG being oversold, according to Bloomberg. But with Europe likely to get through the rest of winter without any shortages and industrial output lacklustre, a rebound is unlikely.
  • US natural gas prices rose 3.1% to be down 5.8% this month. The move was driven by a forecast revision pointing to colder weather for most of the eastern and southern US in early February.
  • North Asian gas fell 0.7% to be down 19% in January. Weak heating demand has weighed on the market and while some buyers are finding low prices attractive, volumes traded remain thin, according to ANZ.
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