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European PMI Strength Helps Post-Holiday Cheapening, 2Y Supply Later

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys sit cheaper across the curve with the US returning from Presidents Day but within Friday's ranges, close to where they opened for the front end but moving lower through European hours in the belly and beyond.
  • Ahead of US PMIs, the cheapening pressure is supported by notably stronger than expected European PMIs (Eurozone services, UK both mfg and services). Data and post-holiday flow likely headlines today with no scheduled Fedspeak until tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes.
  • In yield space, 2YY +4.8bps at 4.663%, 5YY +6.5bp at 4.094%, 10YY +6.2bp at 3.877% and 30YY +5.0bp at 3.919%.
  • TYH3 trades 13 ticks lower at 111-19, off a session low of 111-17+ but still off Friday’s fleeting low of 111-08+ and potentially with some support at 111-10 (Lower 2.0% Bollinger Band) above that.
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg index Feb (0830ET), S&P Global PMI Feb prelim (0945ET), Existing home sales Jan (1000ET)
  • Bond issuance: $42B 2Y notes (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: $60B 13-w and $48B 26-w bills (1130ET), $34B 52-w bills (1300ET)
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