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EUROZONE DATA: Bank Of Italy’s Euro-coin Indicator Ticks Up In October

EUROZONE DATA
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The Bank of Italy’s Euro-coin indicator (nowcast for EZ trend growth) ticked up to 0.18 in October from 0.14 prior.

  • From the press release: “The indicator was buoyed by the resilience of the labour market, although it was held back by the persistent weakness in the business confidence indicators”.
  • The upward revision to today’s Eurozone composite PMI won’t have been accounted for in the October Euro-coin print, which will have drawn upon the lower-than-expected Economic Sentiment indicator from the EC.
  • The trend growth series strips out seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility, and has been in positive (albeit subdued) territory for the last eight months.
  • Bloomberg's GDP Nowcast (which aims to estimate actual Q/Q growth, not trend growth) also rose in October, to 0.13% from -0.23% prior.
  • Both nowcasts were more pessimistic than the Eurozone Q3 flash GDP print, which was 0.4% Q/Q (above consensus and ECB projections of 0.2%).

 

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The Bank of Italy’s Euro-coin indicator (nowcast for EZ trend growth) ticked up to 0.18 in October from 0.14 prior.

  • From the press release: “The indicator was buoyed by the resilience of the labour market, although it was held back by the persistent weakness in the business confidence indicators”.
  • The upward revision to today’s Eurozone composite PMI won’t have been accounted for in the October Euro-coin print, which will have drawn upon the lower-than-expected Economic Sentiment indicator from the EC.
  • The trend growth series strips out seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility, and has been in positive (albeit subdued) territory for the last eight months.
  • Bloomberg's GDP Nowcast (which aims to estimate actual Q/Q growth, not trend growth) also rose in October, to 0.13% from -0.23% prior.
  • Both nowcasts were more pessimistic than the Eurozone Q3 flash GDP print, which was 0.4% Q/Q (above consensus and ECB projections of 0.2%).