EUROZONE DATA
Eurozone industrial production was higher than consensus expectations at -0.3% M/M in-line with MNI's tracking (vs -0.5% consensus, 0.0% revised prior from -0.1%). The annual reading was also higher than expected at -2.2% Y/Y (vs -2.4% consensus, -4.1% revised prior from -3.9%).
- The reading is largely driven by Ireland and Belgium with the former seeing industrial production jump 9.2% M/M (vs a fall of 7.8% in June) - the highest reading since March 2023. Belgium recorded a 7.3% M/M increase reversing last month's 7.0% fall, and the highest sequential reading since September 2022.
- We estimate Eurozone ex-Ireland industrial production in July to have fallen 1.1% M/M.
- The largest five eurozone economies all saw negative IP growth in July. German industrial production in particular deteriorated 3.0% M/M - the second lowest reading since March 2022 and contributing around -1ppts to the EZ print. Meanwhile, Italy saw a fall of 0.9% M/M, Spain a decrease of 0.7%, France a reduction of 0.5% and the Netherlands a fall of 1.2%.
- From a sectoral perspective, 3 of 5 sub-components fell. Intermediate goods fell 1.3% M/M (vs a rise of 0.6% in June after three consecutive months of decline). Capital goods also declined 1.6% M/M (vs an increase of 1.0% in June), as did durable consumer goods printing -2.8% M/M - reversing part of the 3.8% jump seen in June.
- Meanwhile, energy production rose for the third consecutive month albeit at a softer pace than June printing 0.3% M/M (vs 1.7% prior), and non-durable consumer goods rose 1.8% M/M (vs -2.3% prior).
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