MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, January 14

MNI: ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOV 0.3% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y WDA

MNI: ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOV 0.3% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y WDA

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Ensure Yuan Stable, Ease For Economy: Xuan

MNI BRIEF: China Yields Will Reflect Fundamentals - PBOC

MNI BRIEF: China Dec M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Quickens

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, Greece Syndications

CHINA JAN-DEC NEW LOANS CNY18.09 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.85 TRLN

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium Auction on Tuesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

EUROZONE DATA: Robust Spanish Business Sentiment An Anomaly In Big Four

EUROZONE DATA
CommoditiesEurozonePower BulletsGlobalData BulletEnergy BulletsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegion
  • Today’s Ifo business climate index may have been stronger than expected in October at 86.5 after 85.4 but it paints a far from healthy picture, as discussed earlier.
  • There has been a post-pandemic structural break compared to historical relationships with GDP growth, but it nevertheless offers sizeable downside risk to already very weak GDP growth that has languished at either zero or a touch negative for well over a year now.
  • It’s a timely reminder of how German growth continues to heavily lag other major Eurozone economies, with significant structural factors at play.
  • This is something our policy team have touched on multiple times, including capital misallocation (here)  and the related deindustrialisation trend (here) plus specific challenges to its automotive industry (here).
  • However, it’s also notable that both France and Italy have also seen waning momentum in business sentiment recently. In particular, the Istat business confidence index fell from 95.6 to 93.4 in today’s October release for its lowest since Apr 2021. The French INSEE business climate index meanwhile at 97.3 in yesterday's October report is off recent lows but remains below its long-term average of 100.
  • It leaves Spain, with strong real GDP growth of 3.1% Y/Y and domestic demand growth of 2.5% Y/Y back in Q2 as one of the few significant growth drivers across the Eurozone. 
217 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Today’s Ifo business climate index may have been stronger than expected in October at 86.5 after 85.4 but it paints a far from healthy picture, as discussed earlier.
  • There has been a post-pandemic structural break compared to historical relationships with GDP growth, but it nevertheless offers sizeable downside risk to already very weak GDP growth that has languished at either zero or a touch negative for well over a year now.
  • It’s a timely reminder of how German growth continues to heavily lag other major Eurozone economies, with significant structural factors at play.
  • This is something our policy team have touched on multiple times, including capital misallocation (here)  and the related deindustrialisation trend (here) plus specific challenges to its automotive industry (here).
  • However, it’s also notable that both France and Italy have also seen waning momentum in business sentiment recently. In particular, the Istat business confidence index fell from 95.6 to 93.4 in today’s October release for its lowest since Apr 2021. The French INSEE business climate index meanwhile at 97.3 in yesterday's October report is off recent lows but remains below its long-term average of 100.
  • It leaves Spain, with strong real GDP growth of 3.1% Y/Y and domestic demand growth of 2.5% Y/Y back in Q2 as one of the few significant growth drivers across the Eurozone.