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Eurozone Inflation Caps Tsys

US TSYS
Tsys softer but off lows, tracking EGBs following higher than expected Eurozone HICP (+0.8% MoM vs. +0.5% est; +8.5% YoY vs. +8.3%).
  • Yield curves steeper (2s10s +1.902 -87.114) w/ Jun'23 Tsy 2Y futures TUM3 outperforming: steady at 101-21.12 vs. 101-18.25 low, 2YY tapped 4.9352% - new 16 year high at 4.8871% last. Decent volumes in TYM3 futures over 440k after 10Y yield tapped 4.0458% high, 4.0241% last +.0316.
  • STIR: Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 31.2bp, May'23 cumulative 57.7bp to 5.153%, Jun'23 76.5bp to 5.341%, terminal at 5.455% in Oct'23 vs. 5.49% high.
  • US Data out of the way early, all at 0830ET: Initial Jobless Claims (192k, 195k); Continuing Claims (1.654M, 1.669M); Nonfarm Productivity (3.0%, 2.5%) and Unit Labor Costs (1.1%, 1.6%)
  • Tsy auction wrap up the week w/ US Tsy $75B 4W, $60B 8W bills at 1130ET
  • Fed speaker scheduled later: Fed Gov Waller eco-outlook, text, moderated virtual event at 1400ET
  • MN Fed Kashkari on race, justice and economy w/ MN Supreme Court Justice Alan Page at 1830ET, Livestreamed

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