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EURPLN Approaches Key Support, PLNHUF Records Fresh Cycle High

PLN
EURPLN is flirting with the 4.3000 handle, a level which provided solid support yesterday. Should downside momentum accelerate, attention will turn to 4.2935, the Dec 13 low and key support. Clearance of this level would place the cross at its lowest level in close to 3 years and would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in September last year, opening 4.2371.
  • PLN outperformance and an extension of yesterday’s HUF weakness has seen PLNHUF pierce the 91.00 handle and record a fresh all-time high, up 0.3% on the session.
  • As we noted earlier, the debate on EURPLN's ability to clear 4.30 remains live, with Millennium Bank arguing that the zloty lacks argument for such a move. In their view, local factors won't be sufficient to result in a breach of 4.30 and all will depend on EURUSD. By contrast, ING see scope for a move towards 4.27 but only within a few weeks, while Alior Bank note the importance of the timeline for the release of EU aid.
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