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EURPLN Erases This Week’s Gains

PLN

EURPLN has found support at around 4.3570, with the cross now having erased the entirety of this week’s prior gains. The more favourable risk backdrop has offered some reprieve to the wider emerging markets FX basket, though the zloty is a notable outperformer in the space (PLNHUF: +0.54%; PLNCZK: +0.63%), with the pullback in EURPLN from this week’s high of 4.4124 exceeding 1%.

  • Nevertheless, following the breach of both resistance at 4.3749, the Jan 3 high, and the 50-day EMA, a short-term bull cycle in EURPLN remains in play. This week’s moves signal scope for a continuation higher near-term, with the next resistance found at 4.4096, the Oct 17 low. Initial support to watch is at 4.3309, the Jan 9 low, ahead of the bear trigger at 4.2935, the Dec 13 low.
  • Looking ahead, retail sales (Est: +4.9% y/y) and average gross wage data (Est: +12.1% y/y) provide the highlights next week.
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