EURSEK On Course For Largest 1D % Gain Since March '23

EURSEK has breached the 50-day EMA to trade +1.2% higher today at 11.3367. A close at these levels would mark the largest one-day % change for the cross since March '23. However, yesterday's -0.6% move lower means the 2-day change is more muted at around +0.5%.

• Bulls will next eye clustered resistance at 11.3936 (100-day EMA) and 11.4036 (Feb 6 high).
• The Riksbank are well aware of the krona's sensitivity to global risk appetite, and we expect the currency to continue being flagged as the main risk to the inflation outlook (and by extension, a key factor in determining the timing of eventual Riksbank rate cuts).
• Deputy Governor Per Jansson has noted several times since the Feb 1 decision that the timing of rate cuts abroad "is a factor that may have significant bearing" on when Sweden's easing cycle can begin, due to impact on the krona from the rate differential channel.