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FOREX: EURUSD Back Above 1.0900, Goldman Sachs Revise Forecasts Higher

FOREX
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  • The most recent weakness for the greenback has allowed EURUSD to rise to session highs on Monday, with the pair back above 1.0900 at typing. German debt deal headlines prompted a solid rally on Friday, and those inspired highs at 1.0912 will be the first point of note on the topside.
  • A bullish theme remains intact for EURUSD, and moving average studies highlight a dominant uptrend. Recovery highs of 1.0947 will need to be cleared before the market turns its focus to pivot resistance at 1.10 and a more notable cluster of medium-term resistance around the 1.12 mark. As a reminder, several analysts have recently revised their EURUSD forecasts (See here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3Fwbo4l), with BofA most notably calling for the pair to reach 1.15 by year-end.
  • As a result of the shifting policy mix, Goldman Sachs have revised their EUR/USD forecasts up to 1.07, 1.05 and 1.02 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.02, 1.01 and 0.99 previously). GS maintains that the most likely path is Dollar appreciation—though from a weaker level and to a smaller extent—given the path of policy changes they still think are in the pipeline and high implementation risks for Euro area policy that have been quickly priced.
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  • The most recent weakness for the greenback has allowed EURUSD to rise to session highs on Monday, with the pair back above 1.0900 at typing. German debt deal headlines prompted a solid rally on Friday, and those inspired highs at 1.0912 will be the first point of note on the topside.
  • A bullish theme remains intact for EURUSD, and moving average studies highlight a dominant uptrend. Recovery highs of 1.0947 will need to be cleared before the market turns its focus to pivot resistance at 1.10 and a more notable cluster of medium-term resistance around the 1.12 mark. As a reminder, several analysts have recently revised their EURUSD forecasts (See here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3Fwbo4l), with BofA most notably calling for the pair to reach 1.15 by year-end.
  • As a result of the shifting policy mix, Goldman Sachs have revised their EUR/USD forecasts up to 1.07, 1.05 and 1.02 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.02, 1.01 and 0.99 previously). GS maintains that the most likely path is Dollar appreciation—though from a weaker level and to a smaller extent—given the path of policy changes they still think are in the pipeline and high implementation risks for Euro area policy that have been quickly priced.