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EURUSD Continues To Grind Higher, Rises 1% As ECB Dust Settles

EUR
  • This week, EURUSD has traded above resistance at 1.0812, the 50-day EMA and has steadily built momentum, resulting in a sharp 1.00% extension to the topside on Thursday. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25bp to 3.5% on Thursday and signalled another quarter-point hike next month after revising higher its inflation forecasts.
  • President Christine Lagarde repeated last month’s assertion that the ECB has more to do to bring inflation back to target in a timely fashion, with June’s Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections adding 0.1 percentage point to headline inflation across the forecast horizon versus March, to 5.4% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.
  • The renewed strength for the single currency suddenly brings the April highs of 1.1095 back into focus for EURUSD. Between here and there, 1.0986, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 26 - May 31 swing may provide the first resistance.
  • While Friday’s European docket is light, with just the final readings for May inflation due, the Bank of Japan meeting could keep EURJPY on trader’s minds.
  • The pair has soared 1.2% on Thursday, with both sides of the trade bearing fruit. The pair currently trades at its highest level since 2008 and has reached the next objective for the rally at 153.62, the 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing. The next topside level of note is 154.62, another projection level before 155.00, round number resistance.
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