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EURUSD Continues To Grind Lower, Pierces Key Support

EUR
  • Since the ECB decision and President Lagarde’s press conference, any upticks for the single currency have been met with solid supply. EURUSD has continued to edge lower over the course of the US session, extending intra-day lows and most recently piercing a key support level from earlier this year.
  • The May 31 low at 1.0635 has represented the key short-term support and a sustained breach will solidify the current downtrend in place. Below here we have 1.0611, the 38.2% Fib retracement Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg, before 1.0516 the Mar 15 low and a key medium-term support.
  • We noted that EURJPY has now crossed below its 50-day EMA but more notably, the likes of EURAUD, EURCAD have extended losses to over 1%, as the more optimistic tone for equity markets adds particular weight to Euro crosses.
  • Chinese industrial production and retail sales overnight will be the next important release for global risk sentiment. For the Eurozone, final French CPI and Italian trade balance data headline a relatively quiet regional docket. On the US side, empire state manufacturing, industrial production and UMich sentiment data will be released.
  • For good order, ECB president Lagarde is also scheduled to speak again, due to hold a press conference at the Eurogroup meeting, in Spain.

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